DebRD_ATL said:The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions.
DebRD_ATL has the substance of this right. The condition it depends on is worth stating. Yes, and the corollary is less popular: if the reasoning holds, it also holds where it produces an answer we do not like.
oliver_london said:I would put less weight on the timescale, because two months of anything is not enough to distinguish a trend from a wobble.
Thank you for spelling out the reasoning rather than just the conclusion.
DebRD_ATL said:The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions.
I read this differently. The confidence in this thread is running ahead of the evidence, and I would rather the uncertainty were stated than smoothed over because it is unsatisfying.
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View ResultsOne concrete data point for the thread. Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath. An edited-away mistake is invisible to the next person who makes it.
Moderator note: a post naming a supplier has been edited. Discuss suppliers in the review sections, not here. Tagging this one for the weekly digest.